Kripto da Lissafi: Shin Zai Yiwu a Yi Nasara akan Kasuwa?

Labarin Jim Simons ba labarin mutumin da ke sarrafa kuɗi ba ne kawai, duk da cewa yana ɗaya daga cikin masu sarrafa kuɗi mafi nasara a duniya. Labari ne na mutumin da ya kalli duniyar Wall Street mai rikitarwa, ya hango tsari maimakon hargitsi — tsarin lissafi a cikin siffofi masu ban mamaki da kyau. Simons, fitaccen masanin lissafi kuma tsohon mai fasa lambobin sirri na NSA, ya kafa asusun jarin Renaissance Technologies a shekarar 1982.

Babban asusunsa, wato Medallion Fund mai cike da sirri, daga baya zai zama asusu mafi samun riba a tarihi, inda yake samar da ribar shekara-shekara mai ban mamaki da ta haura kashi 60% na tsawon shekaru talatin. Yayin da wasu suka dogara ga basirarsu, jin zuciyarsu, da nazarin yau da kullum, Simons da rundunarsa ta masu digirin digirgir (PhD) a fannin lissafi, kimiyyar lissafi (physics), da kididdiga sun dogara ne kawai ga abubuwa biyu: bayanai (data) da kansu — saƙonni na lantarki daga Wall Street da aka kwaikwaya a kwamfutocinsu — da kuma samfuran (models) da suka gina don fassara su. Mutumin da ya fasa lambar sirrin Wall Street; shi ne "Sarkin Kididdiga" (Quant King). Abin da ya bambanta Renaissance, duk da haka, shi ne al'adarta — wadda ta fi kama da sashen lissafi na jami'a fiye da kamfanin Wall Street mai neman kuɗi ido rufe.

Simons ya samar da yanayi na haɗin gwiwa mai zurfi da son sani, inda ya shahara wajen ɗaukar ƙwararrun da ba su da masaniya ko kaɗan a fannin kuɗi. Ya yi imanin cewa mafi kyawun ra'ayoyi suna fitowa ne daga kallon kasuwa da sabon tunani, ba tare da tsofaffin ra'ayoyin Wall Street ba. Wannan salo ne na daban wanda ya biya buƙata; ya ba su damar haɓaka dabarun arbitrage na kididdiga da ciniki mai saurin gaske (high-frequency trading) waɗanda suka zarce matsayin masana'antar na tsawon shekaru.

Tarihin rayuwar Simons kansa bai yi kama da na manyan attajiran Wall Street ba. Tun kafin ya kawo sauyi a harkar jari, ya kasance babban malamin jami'a mai daraja. Gudunmawar da ya bayar a fannin jiyometiri (geometry) da topoloji (topology) za su taimaka wajen gano siffar Chern-Simons, wadda daga baya aka ɗauka a matsayin wani muhimmin abu na lissafi mai rikitarwa ga ka'idar kirtani (string theory) da ka'idar fage na kwantum (quantum field theory).

Wannan ikon tunani mai zurfi da fadi ya sa ya bambanta da sauran mutane. Bai kalli kasuwa a matsayin tarin kamfanoni daban-daban ba, a’a, ya kalle ta ne a matsayin wani tsari mai kuzari wanda wasu muhimman ka’idoji ke tafiyar da shi, kamar karfin dabi’a. Ya dauki harkar zuba jari a matsayin wata matsalar kimiyya, kamar dai za a iya magance ta ta hanyar tattara isassun bayanai da amfani da ingantattun algorithms don raba sahihan bayanai (signal) daga hayaniya (noise).

Tawagarsa ta tattara dimbin bayanai, tun daga tarihin farashin hannun jari har zuwa yanayin sararin samaniya, suna neman duk wani tasiri da za a iya hasashen sa don yin ciniki da shi. Sun kirkiro algorithms masu sarkakiya wadanda za su iya yin ciniki kai tsaye don samun riba daga kananan rashin daidaito na dan lokaci wadanda idon dan adam ba zai taba iya gani ba. Ba su yi hasashen inda kasuwa za ta dosa a dogon lokaci ba; kawai sun gano kananan damammaki masu inganci ne sannan suka yi amfani da su sau miliyoyi.

Wannan tsarin ya dogara kacokan kan ingantattun bayanai da kuma kwakkwaran kayan aiki (infrastructure) — abubuwan da asusun zuba jari na gargajiya ba su da su sosai. Babban imanin su shi ne cewa idan aka samu isassun bayanai, wasu kananan alamu da ke nuna dabi'un masu amfani za su bayyana — kuma wadannan alamun na iya zama kanana sosai amma har yanzu suna iya haifar da riba mai yawa idan aka yi amfani da su a babban siki.

Tsohon Tsari, Amma Tare da Sabon Fage

Tabbas, duniyar kudi ta yau ta bambanta sosai da wadda Simons ya mamaye tuntuni. Kasuwanni sun fi sauri, sun fi dunkulewa a duniya, kuma sun fi sarkakiya nesa ba kusa ba. Damammakin samun riba cikin sauki wadanda asusun Medallion Fund ya yi amfani da su tuni suka bace daga kasuwa, sakamakon yawaitar masu cinikin lissafi (quantitative traders) wadanda suka bi sawun Simons.

Samfuransa na asali, idan aka bayyana su a yau, za su iya bayyana a matsayin tsohon yayi ko kuma marasa amfani ga tsarin cinikin algorithm mai saurin gaske na wannan zamanin.

Sai dai kuma, ɗaukar hakan a matsayin dalilin yin watsi da gadon nasararsa zai zama kuskure babba. Haƙiƙanin bajintar ba ta dogara ga kowane samfuri guda ɗaya ba, a’a, tana ga tsarin da aka bi ne: cewa kasuwanni, kowace irin kasuwa, har ma da waɗanda ake ganin suna da inganci sosai, cike suke da tsage-tsage da raunuka. “Manufar ita ce a kera madubin lissafi mai kaifi sosai don hango su.”

Kuma yanzu, ana amfani da wannan tsari a sabon fagen kuɗi mafi ban mamaki: wato cryptocurrency. Ganin yadda farashinsa ke tashi da faɗuwa cikin sauri (volatility), ci gaba mai kwaram, da kuma kasancewarsa tsarin dijital zalla (inda musayar kuɗi ta tsakiya kawai ke zama keɓaɓɓun wurare), masana tattalin arziki suna kallon crypto a matsayin aljanna. Duniya ce da ta dogara ga bayanai, inda ake rubuta dukkan hada-hadar kuɗi a cikin littafin adana bayanai na jama'a (public ledger) wanda ba ya sauyawa. Wannan yana ba masana lissafi da masana kimiyyar bayanai damar gano abubuwa masu tarin yawa.

Waɗannan bayanan na kan sarka (on-chain data) sun haɗa da yawan hada-hadar kuɗi, ragowar kuɗi a walat, ayyukan kwangilar fasaha (smart contracts), da kuɗin amfani da hanyar sadarwa (network fees), waɗanda ke ba da haske na gaskiya da na take game da yadda tsarin kasuwar yake gudana. Haka kuma, akwai tarin bayanan da ba na kan sarka ba (off-chain data), kamar zurfin littafin oda na wuraren musayar kuɗi ko kuma tasirin ra'ayoyin kafofin sada zumunta a dandamali irin su Twitter da Reddit. Aikin yana da wuya, amma manufar a bayyane take.

Manufar ba ita ce a yi hasashen ko Bitcoin zai kai matsayi mafi girma da bai taɓa kaiwa ba (all-time high) a shekara mai zuwa ba, a’a, manufar ita ce a gano wasu ɓoyayyun tsare-tsare da za a iya amfani da su a cikin hargitsin yau da kullum na kasuwar.

“Gano irin rashin ingancin tsarin da ake da shi ne, walau a fannin farashin derivatives, kwararar jari tsakanin musayar kudi (exchanges) ko ma muhimman hanyoyin gudanar da tsarin hada-hadar kudi na blockchain.” Neman alpha ya tashi daga dandalin ciniki na Wall Street zuwa duniyar blockchain da ba ta da tsakiya.

Kayan Yaƙi na Lissafi na Zamani

Domin taimaka musu wajen ratsa wannan sabon yanayi, quants na yau suna sanye da manyan kayan aiki na lissafi masu sarkakiya wadanda ke gabatar da hanyoyi daban-daban na fassara da fahimtar abin da ke faruwa a kasuwanni. Sun hada da nau'ikan tsoffin ka'idojin kudi da aka gyara zuwa sabbin samfura gaba daya wadanda aka tsara don magance keɓantattun halayen kadarorin dijital. Daya daga cikin mafi saukin ra'ayoyi, wanda aka samo daga tsarin kudi na gargajiya, shi ne samfurin Black-Scholes. A asali, wata dabara ce ta lissafin farashin derivatives.

A kan wasu zato na manufa — cewa kasuwanni suna da inganci sosai, farashin kadarori suna bin tafiyar da ake iya hasashe, wadda aka sani da geometric Brownian motion kuma canjin farashi (volatility) ba ya canzawa. Kuma ko da yake kasuwar crypto ba ta kai ga kammala ba, Black-Scholes har yanzu wani muhimmin tushe ne na ilimi da muke bukata don kwatanta farashin zaɓuɓɓukanmu (options pricing) a cikin wannan duniyar ta derivatives na crypto da ke bunkasa. Amma zaton sa masu tsauri galibi suna faduwa a duniyar cryptos, inda canjin farashi ya shahara wajen rashin tabbas kuma abubuwan “fat-tailed” — wato, gagarumin sauyin farashi — abu ne da ke faruwa akai-akai.

Don shawo kan wadannan gazawar, quants galibi suna amfani da hanyoyi masu sarkakiya. Daya daga cikin wadannan rukunoni ana kiransa Stochastic Volatility Jump Models. Wadannan samfuran sun zo ne a matsayin martani ga gazawar Black-Scholes." Suna fahimtar muhimman gaskiyar kasuwa guda biyu: cewa rashin tabbas na farashi (volatility) ba ya kasancewa a matsayi guda, maimakon haka, yana canzawa ne da lokaci ta hanyar da ba a sani ba (stochastic); sannan farashi na iya fuskantar tsalle-tsalle ko sauyi mai karfi kwatsam (misali saboda fitowar manyan labarai ko rufe asusu/liquidations). Ta hanyar amfani da dabarun lissafi don yin bayani kan sauyin volatility da kuma gagarumin tsalle-tsallen farashi, irin wadannan samfura (models) suna ba da hangen nesa na zahiri (duk da cewa yana da sarkakiya) game da yanayin tafiyar farashin kadarori — kuma suna iya zama masu matukar amfani a duniyar crypto mai cike da hargitsi.

Wani rukunin irin wadannan kayan aikin kuma su ne hanyoyin Monte Carlo. Maimakon lissafi guda daya mai sauki kamar na Black-Scholes, Monte Carlo hanya ce mai karfi da ake amfani da ita kai tsaye. Tana aiki ne ta hanyar gudanar da dubun-dubata, idan ma ba miliyoyin gwaje-gwaje (simulations) na yadda kasuwa za ta kasance a nan gaba ba, bisa ga bayanai na farko kamar farashin yau da kuma kiyasin volatility.

Ta hanyar nazarin dukkan sakamakon wadannan gwaje-gwajen, dan kasuwa zai iya samun fahimta game da yiwuwar darajar wani derivative na option ko kuma yawan hadarin da ke cikin kundin kadarorinsa (portfolio). Wannan sassaucin yana da matukar muhimmanci a harkar crypto, inda galibi kadarori ba su da dogon tarihin da tsofaffin samfura ke bukata, kuma inda hadaddun derivatives masu dogaro da yanayin tafiya (path-dependent) ke kara yawa.

Wannan shi ne daidai inda ra'ayoyin zamani kan gina kundin kadarori (portfolio), kamar Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT), ke shigowa. SPT, wanda E. Robert Fernholz ya kirkira, tsari ne mai siffantawa maimakon bayar da umarni. Ba ya farawa da zaton cewa kasuwanni suna da inganci dari bisa dari; maimakon haka, yana aiki ne bisa yanayin farashin kasuwa na zahiri da ake iya gani a matsayin tsarin canji na lokaci-lokaci (continuous-time random processes). Wannan ya bambanta da tsohuwar ka'idar sarrafa asusun jari (classic portfolio theory) inda mai saka jari yake rage darajar da ake tsammani na ribar zagaye da kuma matakin canji mara canzawa (variance).

Wannan kuma yana ba da damar dabarun da ke neman doke kasuwa baki daya, ba ta hanyar hasashen inda za ta dosa ba, sai dai ta hanyar daidaita asusun jari (rebalancing) lokaci-lokaci don matsa lamba kan mabanbantan matakan girma na abubuwan da ke cikinsa. Wannan wata mahanga ce mai zurfi, wadda ta fi dacewa da yawa-yawan abubuwa da kuma rashin alaka (lack of correlation) da ake gani a duniyar crypto.

Wadannan suna samun goyon baya daga rukunin hanyoyi na biyu wadanda aka tsara don zamanin dijital. A dakunan zana jadawali (charts), ana tsara farashin crypto ta amfani da hanyoyin da aka aro daga tsarin Bayesian don daukar su kamar kwayoyin halitta (particles) a karkashin karfin da ba ya tafiya a madaidaiciyar layi (dynamic non-linear potential). Babban ra'ayin da ke bayan kididdigar Bayesian yana da kyau a cikin saukinsa: kana da tsohon imani game da wani abu sannan ka sabunta wannan imanin yayin da kake samun sabbin hujjoji. A cikin duniyar crypto mai saurin gaske, wannan ra'ayi ne mai karfi. Samfurin Bayesian yana iya sabunta hasashensa akai-akai yayin da sabbin bayanan farashi, yawan hada-hadar kudi (transaction volumes) ko ma ma'aunin ra'ayoyin kafofin sada zumunta ke shigowa, wanda ke ba shi damar mayar da martani nan take yayin da yanayin kasuwa ke canzawa ta hanyar da samfura marasa canzawa (static models) ba za su iya ba.

Wani kayan aiki mai karfi kuma shi ne Hidden Markov Model (HMM). HMM yana dauka cewa kasuwa na iya kasancewa a cikin "tsarin mulki" daban-daban ko boyayyun yanayi — misali, yanayin ‘bull run’ mai yawan riba da karancin sauyin farashi (volatility), tsarin kasuwar ‘bear’ mai asarar riba da yawan sauyin farashi, ko kuma tsarin daidaitawa a gefe (sideways consolidation). Samfurin yana nazarin farashin kuma yana kokarin koyon wane yanayi kasuwar take ciki, da kuma yanayin da ya fi dacewa ta shiga nan gaba.

A cikin kasuwa mai saurin sauyin ra'ayi kamar crypto, inda yanayi zai iya canzawa daga murna zuwa firgita a kowace sa'a, HMMs nau'ikan kayan aiki ne da za su iya haskaka wadannan sauye-sauyen yanayi da kuma koya wa 'yan kasuwa dabarun da za su ba su damar daidaitawa yadda ya kamata.

A karshe, samfuran Vector Autoregression (VAR) suna taimakawa wajen warware hadadden tsarin alakar da ke tsakanin sauran kudaden crypto (altcoins). A kasuwa mai dauke da dubban kudaden dijital (tokens) masu alaka da juna, rashin sani ne mutum ya kalli kowane daya a kebe. Samfurin VAR yana magance wannan ta hanyar daukar kadarori da dama a matsayin tsari guda. Yana iya bincika yadda girgizar farashin babban kadara kamar Ethereum ke yaduwa a cikin muhallin tsarin, yana shafar farashin wasu dubban tokens a cikin muhallin DeFi da NFT. Yana tsara taswirar sanadi da tasirin yaduwa a kasuwa, yana nuna kudaden da ke jagoranci da wadanda ke biye, tare da samar da cikakken bayani kan hadarin tsari da damammaki.

Karfi Da Kalubalen Kasuwar Da Aka Tsara Da Lambobi

Yin amfani da wadannan samfuran lissafi na gaba don nazarin kasuwannin crypto yana ba da babban fata, amma kuma ba ya rasa hadari. Fa'idodin a bayyane suke: taswirar da ke dogara da bayanai ta cikin fage da aka sani da hasashe. Amma kowane masanin lissafin kudi (quant) ya sani cewa samfuransu siffa ce kawai ta zahiri, kuma dogara gare su kacokan na iya kaiwa ga halaka. Wato, akwai bukatar daidaitawa a nan: Dole ne a auna fa'idodin da za a iya samu da kuma matsalolin da ke tattare da asusun quant — domin kada a kare kamar sauran.

An takaita manyan fa'idodi da matsaloli a kasa:

1. Fa'idodi: Game da fa'idar, akwai yiwuwar fitar da wasu muhimman alamu daga tarin bayanai masu yawa. Samfuran lissafi (Quantitative models) na iya gano alaƙoƙi da tsare-tsare masu sarkakiya da ke ɓoye a cikin dubban kadarori da miliyoyin cinikai waɗanda babu wani ɗan adam da zai iya ganowa. Wannan kuma yana kaiwa ga tsarin gudanar da kasada mai tarbiya da tsari inda za a iya auna asara da kuma sarrafa ta. Ta wani ɓangaren kuma, waɗannan samfuran su ne kashin bayan ciniki ta hanyar algoridim (algo trading) – suna ba da damar aiwatar da dabarun ciniki kai tsaye a cikin saurin da zai iya amfani da damammakin da ke wanzuwa na tsawon daƙiƙa kaɗan (milliseconds). Wannan ikon "shakar" dama yana da matuƙar muhimmanci a sassa masu sarkakiya kamar kasuwar Makamashi a cikin hanyar sadarwa ta TRON – inda farashi da yawan abin da ake da shi ke canzawa cikin saurin walƙiya. Yana kawar da tsoro da kwaɗayi daga ciniki lokacin da muka bi tsarin da aka tsara, wanda hakan ke haifar da aiwatar da ayyuka cikin daidaito.

2. Rashin Amfani: Babban haɗarin shi ne ‘haɗarin samfuri’ (model risk). Duk wani samfuri yana da kyau ne kawai gwargwadon hasashen da aka yi amfani da shi wajen ƙirƙira shi. Idan waɗancan hasashen ba daidai ba ne, ko kuma yanayin kasuwa ya canza ta hanyar da ba a tsara samfurin don jurewa ba, zai iya rugujewa gaba ɗaya. Ya kamata shari'o'in LTCM su kasance darasi na har abada don nuna abin da ke faruwa lokacin da ka lalata komai ga kowa saboda kwaɗayin samun riba na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Ingancin bayanan da aka shigar wani babban rauni ne; bayanan da ba su da kyau ko "masu datti" na iya haifar da yanke shawara mara kyau da kuma kuskuren ciniki mai tsada. A ƙarshe, samfuran lissafi ba su da ƙwarewa wajen hasashen abubuwan "black swan". Hare-haren hukumomin ƙa'idoji na ba-zata, kutse a manyan wuraren musayar kuɗi (exchange hacks), ko ci gaban fasaha da ba a yi tsammani ba, abubuwa ne da ke wajen tsarin kididdiga na bayanan baya, kuma suna iya sa ko da samfura mafi inganci su daina aiki cikin dare ɗaya.

Waɗannan samfuran kayan aiki ne kawai a ƙarshe, ba wai kwanon duba ba ne. Suna ba masu saka hannun jari abin da za a iya kira fifikon yuwuwa (probabilistic edge), ko kuma hanyar karkatar da damar samun nasara zuwa ɓangaren mutum a cikin cinikai da dama. Manyan kamfanonin quant ba sa amfani da su a matsayin madogara ta cikakkiyar gaskiya, sai dai a matsayin hanyar taimakawa wajen fahimta da kuma jure rashin tabbas da ke tattare da kasuwanni. Suna ci gaba da sabunta tsarin lissafinsu (models), suna gyara su, kuma wani lokacin suna wurgar da su yayin da kasuwa ke canzawa; sun sani cewa taswira ba ita ce yankin kanta ba. Mu'amala mai saurin canzawa ta tsare-tsare kamar kasuwar hayar Energy a cikin hanyar sadarwa ta TRON misali ne na wannan daidaitawa, tunda sabbin masu samarwa da tsarin farashi suna canza yanayin akai-akai. Kamfanin quant mai nasara kamfani ne na sarrafa kasada kamar yadda yake kamfani ne na yin hasashe.

Neman Simons na Gaba

Akwai abubuwa da dama game da labarin Jim Simons da Asusun Medallion fiye da arzikin ban mamaki da ya samar: Labari ne na wata hanyar tunani daban. Ya nuna cewa koda a cikin sana'ar da motsin ran dan adam da hasashen zuciya ke tasiri, ingantacciyar hanyar bincike ta zahiri za ta iya yin nasara. Ya nuna cewa a karkashin hayaniya da hargitsin kasuwanni, akwai dabarar lissafi game da yadda farashi ke motsawa wanda, koda yake ba koyaushe yake kaiwa ga hasashe mai inganci ba, yana iya samar da damar saka hannun jari mai tushe. Tasirinsa yana da girma a duniyar kudi — kalubale ne ga tsarin, tunatarwa ce cewa lallai za a iya warware lambobin sirri (code) na kasuwa. Ya sake fasalta abin da za a iya cimmawa, kuma ya canza tsarin nan na shahararrun masu zabar hannun jari (stock-pickers) sabanin kungiyoyin masana kimiyya da ba a sani ba.

Yayin da sabon rukunin kwararrun mutane ke mayar da hankali ga fagen fasahar zamani na cryptocurrency, ba maganar ko wani zai maimaita nasararsa ba ne, sai dai maganar yaushe ne hakan zai faru. Kasuwar crypto, wacce ke bude ga kimiyyar bayanai mai karfin gaske, gaba daya ta intanet ce kuma ba ta barci, watakila ita ce mafi dacewa ga juyin juya hali na lissafi (quantitative revolution) na karni na 21. Kayan aikin sun fi nagarta, bayanai sun fi yawa, kuma damar ganowa da amfani da gazawar kasuwa tana ko'ina.

Wuri ne inda ake ba da lada mai tsoka ga sabbin dabaru da gwaje-gwajen lissafi.

Amma Simons na gaba zai fuskanci gagarumin aiki. Gasar ma ta fi girma yanzu, tare da daruruwan asusun 'quant funds', manya da kanana da ke binciken kasuwannin crypto don samun alpha. Kasuwar kanta tana da yanayin canzawa (reflexive); yayin da quants da dama ke cin gajiyar rashin daidaito a kasuwa, hakan yakan sa damar ta bace. Gasar makamai ce da ba ta karewa, wacce ke bukatar samfura masu sarkakiya da kuma saurin aiwatarwa fiye da kowane lokaci. Tafiya ce mai hatsari, cike da gagaruman kalubale a hanya, amma idan akwai wani abu da za a koya daga Jim Simons, shi ne cewa watakila, kai ma za ka iya yin nasara a kan kasuwa — idan kana da kwarewar lissafi da kuma karfin kwamfuta da ke mara maka baya. A nan ne Netts Energy Market zai iya taimaka maka wajen samun farashin Energy mai kyau daidai lokacin da kake bukata: