---
title: "Mafi Munin Kura-kuran Lissafi a Tarihin Crypto"
description: "3AC, Terra/UST, FTX, masu ba da bashi, da The DAO — yadda girman kai na dabara, leverage, da tsari mara kyau suka narkar da biliyoyin daloli tare da sake fasalin al'adun fuskantar hadari a harkar crypto."
language: ha
published: 2026-04-07
author: Netts
topic: "Insights"
canonical: https://netts.io/blog/most-drastic-miscalculations-in-crypto-history?lang=ha
languages: [en, ru, es, zh, th, fr, uk, tr, hi, fa, ar, ha, pt, vi, ko, ja, id, de, tl]
translation_outdated: false
---
# Mafi Munin Kura-kuran Lissafi a Tarihin Crypto

3AC, Terra/UST, FTX, masu ba da bashi, da The DAO — yadda girman kai na dabara, leverage, da tsari mara kyau suka narkar da biliyoyin daloli tare da sake fasalin al'adun fuskantar hadari a harkar crypto.

Tarihin tattalin arzikin cryptocurrency yakan kasance abin da ake yi wa kallon wani yanki da babu doka, inda ake samun dukiya ko rasa ta cikin dare ɗaya, kuma inda ’yan kasuwa masu haɗari ke jujjuya tsarin kuɗi na yanzu da fasaha ta zamani. Amma wannan labarin gaskiya ne na wani ɓangare kawai, kuma a ƙarƙashin hakan akwai wani darasi mai ban tsoro game da abin da fasaha take so da gaske — wani muhimmin darasi da waɗancan mashahuran masu kawo sauyi suka rufe, waɗanda ba su gaza cikin ƙasƙanci ba, amma sun gaza cikin babban yanayi mai ban mamaki.

Waɗannan ba matsalolin farko ba ne na karɓar fasaha, ko kuma ƙananan kura-kurai da sabuwar fasaha: Waɗannan gazawa ne a matakin dabara. Misali, yi la'akari da abin da ake kira bala'in Laszlo Hanyecz, wanda a shekarar 2010 ya shahara wajen kashe bitcoin 10,000 akan pizzas guda biyu — wanda galibi ake kira a matsayin "kuskure" a al'adun yau da kullun. Wannan, a haƙiƙanin gaskiya, wani muhimmin mataki ne na tabbatar da ingancin sabuwar kuɗi (proof-of-concept) wadda ba ta da wata daraja a lokacin. Lokacin da Hanyecz ya zauna don cin pizza a ranar 22 ga Mayu, 2010, wataƙila bai san cewa yana cin abincin rana na miliyoyin daloli ba kuma ɗanɗanonsa yana kafa tarihin bitcoin ta hanyoyi fiye da ɗaya.

Duk da haka… ainihin kuskuren lissafi — waɗanda suka narkar da biliyoyin daloli na daraja, kuma suka share ajiyar rayuwar mutane — ƙwararrun mahalarta ne suka yi su waɗanda ke da kowane kayan aiki a hannunsu don auna haɗari, amma suka zaɓi yin biris. Waɗannan maza ne da mata waɗanda suka ɗauki amfani da bashi (leverage) a matsayin fasaha kuma yanayin kasuwa a matsayin sabbin dokoki, kuma sun gina tsare-tsaren da ba za su iya jure nauyin kansu ba.

## Ruɗin "Supercycle": Three Arrows Capital

Asusun saka hannun jari na crypto wato 3AC, ko Three Arrows Capital, ba wani kamfani ne marar tushe ba; shi ne babban kamfani a duniyar crypto, yana sarrafa biliyoyin daloli kuma yana samun girmamawa daga kowane babban teburin kasuwanci.

Rashin nasararsu mai ban tausayi ya samo asali ne daga wani tsarin akida da suka yada da himma irin ta addini: wato “Supercycle.” Wadanda suka kafa kamfanin sun yaudari kansu cewa kasuwar crypto ta riga ta wuce zamanin tashi da faduwa mai tsanani na da, maimakon haka ta shiga wani zamani inda farashi ke tashi kawai, sakamakon karbuwa daga manyan hukumomi da kuma karbuwar jama'a baki daya.

Ba wai kawai taken tallace-tallace ba ne; shi ne tushen gudanarwar asusun jarinsu. Da yake suna ran farashi zai ci gaba da tashi koyaushe, ko kuma a kalla ba zai taba faduwa warwas ba, sun kwaso dimbin bashi (leverage) don samun damar cin gajiyar wannan kasuwa mai tashi (bull market) yadda ya kamata.

Kuskuren dabarunsu ba wai kawai kasancewa masu kyakkyawan zato ga kasuwa ba ne, a'a, gina kundin jari na biliyoyin daloli ne a karkashin zaton cewa wani lamari na "black swan" (mafi munin yanayi da ba a taba tsammani ba) ba zai taba faruwa ba. Yayin da kasuwa ta sauya a shekarar 2022, 3AC ba kawai ta kasance cikin hadari ba ne; ta yi amfani da leverage mai yawa a kan kadarorin da suka fara daskarewa (illiquid) cikin sauri. Kasuwancinsu na musamman a cikin Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) misali ne bayyananne na dabarar da ba ta da mafita. Shekaru da dama, GBTC yana ciniki a kan farashi mai daraja (premium) fiye da ainihin Bitcoin, wanda ke ba wa asusun jari damar cin ribar bambancin farashin (arbitrage). 3AC sun yi caca cewa wannan darajar za ta dore ko kuma a kalla ta kasance mai kyau. Lokacin da matsayinsu ya koma babban nauyi na bashi shi ne lokacin da darajar ta koma rangwame (discount).

Sun makale a cikin wani ciniki da ke asarar kudi, amma duk da haka hasashen Supercycle ya makantar da su har ba su ga bukatar amincewa da asarar ba. Maimakon haka, sai suka kara kaimi wajen yin kasada sannan suka ci bashi daga kusan kowane babban mai ba da bashi a fannin don biyan wadancan basussukan — wanda hakan ya mayar da asusun hedge din ya zama kamar ginin katako (house of cards) da zai iya rugujewa kowane lokaci. Ba wai kawai asusun ne ya durkushe ba; ya haifar da wata annoba da ta lalata masu ba da bashi kamar Voyager Digital da Genesis, wanda ke nuna yadda makantar dabarun kamfani daya za ta iya zama nakasa ga daukacin masana'antar a cikin kasuwa mai sarkakiya da hadin kai.

Rashin nasarar 3AC ya nuna cewa ko da yaya nasararka take a baya, ba ka taba wuce ka’idojin sarrafa kasada (risk management) ba.

## Girman Kan Algorithmic: Rugujewar Terra-Luna

Idan har 3AC gazawa ce ta sarrafa kasada, to babban rugujewar tsarin Terra da stablecoin dinsa na UST ya kasance fashewar tsarin kera shi ne da kuma girman kai. Do Kwon, wanda ya kafa Terraform Labs, ya yi tunanin samar da wani decentralized stablecoin wanda ba a jingina shi da kadarorin gargajiya kamar dalar Amurka ba. Abin da ya lalace ta fuskar dabara shi ne zaton cewa tsarin algorithmic peg zai iya jure dogon hari da aka tsara ko kuma babban rashin amincewa ba tare da tallafi daga waje ba. Shirin Kwon ya dogara ne a kan yanayin arbitrage na token din LUNA da UST. Da zarar UST ta fadi kasa da $1, yan kasuwa za su kona (burn) UST domin samar da (mint) LUNA don daidaita darajar (peg). Wannan ya yi kyau a lokacin da kasuwa ke bunkasa (bull market), amma ya haifar da hadarin “death spiral” a lokacin fargaba.

![](https://netts.io/blog/articles/most-drastic-miscalculations-in-crypto-history/images/1-2.png)

Sai dai, ainihin gazawar dabarar ta faru ne watanni kafin rugujewar karshe. Da ya fahimci cewa tsarin peg din yana da rauni sosai, Kwon ya kafa Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) sannan ya fara yunkurin sayen Bitcoin na biliyoyin daloli a matsayin asusu (reserve). A rubuce, wannan ya yi kama da hikima. Amma a zahiri, babban kuskuren dabara ne mai muni. Ta hanyar hada lafiyar UST da farashin Bitcoin, Kwon ya kawar da fa'ida guda daya da algorithmic stablecoin zai iya bayarwa — wato kwanciyar hankali mai zaman kanta (uncorrelated stability). Tsarin peg din ya karye, kuma dole LFG ta sayar da Bitcoin na biliyoyin daloli a cikin kasuwar da ke cike da fargaba domin kare farashin. Wannan matsin lamba na sayarwa ya tilasta farashin Bitcoin faduwa, wanda faduwar tasa ta jawo daukacin kasuwar — har da LUNA — kasa, hakan ya kara rage amincewa da LUNA.

Ya kasance kamar annabcin halaka ne da ya tabbatar da kansa. Don haka, tsarin amfani da tsabar kudi masu saurin canjin farashi don tallafawa tsabar kudi tsayayyu (stablecoins) domin jawo hankalin masu amfani, yayin da ake alkawarin ribar kashi 20% ta hanyar kowane nau'in Ka'idojin Anchor (masu dauke da kowane irin harafi), lallai zai rushe da zarar ci gaba ya ragu. Sakamakon ya kasance mai girma: bacewar darajar dala biliyan 40 a cikin 'yan kwanaki kalilan, tare da takunkumin hukumomi wanda ya mayar da masana'antar baya da shekaru da dama, sannan ya ruguza kananan masu zuba jari wadanda aka yi wa alkawarin cewa UST "amintacce" ne.

## Gidan Katin Wasa: Rushewar Ruwan Kudi na Farat Daya na FTX

Sannan kuma akwai wuce gona da iri na dabara wanda aka dauka a matsayin kirkire-kirkire: FTX. Kamar yadda zambar laifi ta hada kadarorin abokan ciniki da Alameda Research take da ban mamaki, kuskuren kasuwanci da suka gina komai a kansa shi ma yana da ban mamaki. Sam Bankman-Fried ya tara dukiya mai yawa a kan ra'ayin "cross-margining" da ciniki mai saurin gaske, inda ya tallata kansa a matsayin "JP Morgan na crypto." Amma babban kuskurensa shi ne sanya tsabar kudin musayarsa, FTT, ya zama ginshikin karfin tattalin arzikinsa. FTX da Alameda sun dauki FTT kamar yana da saukin canzawa zuwa kudi da kuma karko kamar dalar Amurka. Sun ci bashin biliyoyin daloli ta hanyar jinginar sa, suna da yakinin cewa ko dai za su iya sarrafa farashinsa a kowane lokaci ko kuma su sami masu saya idan bukatar sayarwa ta taso. Wannan ya haifar da wata da'ira mai hadari inda lafiyar dandalin musayar ta dogara kacokan a kan amincewa da tsabar kudin da dandalin da kansa ya buga.

Wannan shi ne kuskuren da aka saba gani na rikitar da "darajar kasuwa ta yanzu" (mark-to-market) da "darajar da za a iya samu" (realizable value). Alameda tana da biliyoyin daloli a takarda na FTT. Idan har suka zubar da ko da kankanin bangare na hakan a kasuwa, farashin zai fadi kusan zuwa sifiri. Shirin Bankman-Fried shi ne ya canza wannan jarin na hasashe zuwa ainihin kadarori — hannun jarin Robinhood, zuba jari a sabbin sana'o'i, tasirin siyasa, da gidaje da filaye. A takaice, yana sayen duniya ne da kudin da ya kirkira da kansa, yana mai imanin cewa wannan yanayi ba zai taba karewa ba.

Ya kuma yi kuskuren fahimtar yanayin zamantakewar masana'antarsa, yana tunanin cewa hoton "Effective Altruism" (Taimakon Al'umma Mai Tasiri) da ya gina cikin tsanaki zai kare shi daga sukar jama'a.

![](https://netts.io/blog/articles/most-drastic-miscalculations-in-crypto-history/images/1-3.png)

Lokacin da babban jami'in gudanarwa na Binance, Changpeng Zhao, ya bayyana a watan da ya gabata cewa zai sayar da wasu daga cikin kudadensa na FTT gaba daya idan har za a iya yin cinikinsu ta wata hanya, hakan ya fito da fili yadda tsarin FTX yake da rauni ta fuskar dabaru. Babu ainihin kudaden da za a iya amfani da su (liquidity), kawai dai ana nuna kamar akwai su ne. Sakamakon wannan duka shi ne rashin amincewa baki daya ga rumbunan musayar kudi na tsakiya (centralized exchanges), kuma masana'antar ta shiga wani hali na kunci don gyara hakan ta hanyar amfani da shaidar ajiya (proof-of-reserves) da kuma binciken kudi (audits) masu tsauri. Kuma rugujewar FTX ta wuce kawai fatara; ya kasance cin amana ne wanda zai sake fasalin yadda jama'a ke kallon kudaden intanet (cryptocurrency) har tsawon zamani.

Idan muka zurfafa bincike a tarihi, za mu iya duba babban kuskuren dabarun (ko kuma rashin kulawa na gaba daya) da Mt. Gox ta yi, wadda a wani lokaci ita ce rumbun musayar Bitcoin mafi girma a duniya. An gudanar da ita ne kamar aikin manhaja (software project) maimakon kasuwancin kudi, in ji Mark Karpelès yayin da ya karbi ragamar rumbun musayar. Wataƙila an yi kuskuren lissafi a nan game da abubuwan da ya kamata a ba fifiko. Manufofin a farkon kwanakin 2013 da 2014 su ne "haɓaka ta kowane hali." Matakan tsaro, daidaita asusu, da manufofin walat ɗin sanyi (cold wallet policy) sun kasance abubuwa na biyu bayan tabbatar da cewa shafin yana aiki da kuma tallafa wa sabbin masu amfani. Karpelès bai fahimci cewa a matsayinsa na mai gadin daruruwan dubban Bitcoin ba, samfurinsa ba injin ciniki ba ne: tsaro ne. Ya mayar da hankali kan fasaloli da gyare-gyare, ba kan tsarin tsaro na asali da ake bukata don kiyaye kudaden masu amfani ba.

Shekaru da dama kafin rugujewar, maharan intanet (hackers) suna kwashe kudi daga rumbun musayar ba tare da kowa ya sani ba, wani bangare saboda tsarin lissafin kudi na cikin gida ya yi karanci sosai har ma kamar babu shi.

Shawarar — wadda take ta dabara ce kuma daga baya ta zama sanadin rugujewa — ita ce yin amfani da ƙananan ma'aikata a ɓangaren fasaha yayin da ake gudanar da hada-hadar kuɗi masu yawa kamar na bankunan gargajiya. Lokacin da Mt. Gox ya ruguje a ƙarshe, Bitcoin guda 850,000 ne suka ɓace ɓat. Sakamakon hakan ya haifar da "lokacin sanyin crypto" (crypto winter) wanda ya ɗauki shekaru, yayin da kasuwa ta fahimci cewa tsarin da ke tallafawa wannan sabuwar fasahar yana da rauni sosai. Wannan ya koya wa masana'antar babban darasi mai raɗaɗi: ba shi da amfani yadda ka yi saurin shiga kasuwa idan ba za ka iya kare kadarorin da kake da su ba. Rugujewar Mt. Gox ya kasance gargaɗi game da haɗarin sanya faɗaɗa kasuwanci gaba da tsaro — darasin da musayar kuɗaɗen intanet (exchanges) da dama suka kasa kiyayewa tun lokacin da hakan ya faru, wanda ya haifar da sakamakon da ake tsammani.

## Tarkon Riba: Celsius da BlockFi

Duniyar ayyukan kuɗi koyaushe tana zama babban hari ga masu zamba, amma babu abin da ya fi dacewa da hayaniya da kwadayin da ake ciki yanzu kamar dandamalin bayar da rancen cryptocurrency irin su Celsius da BlockFi.

Wani nau'in gazawar dabarun kasuwanci ya bayyana a cikin labarin BlockFi da Celsius. Babban burin waɗannan kamfanoni shi ne ƙoƙarin dinke barakar da ke tsakanin DeFi (Decentralized Finance) da bankunan gargajiya. Tallarsu a bayyane take: saka crypto, sannan ka sami babban ruwa. Kuskuren dabarar da suka yi shi ne rashin daidaita tsawon lokaci da kuma rashin kimanta haɗarin da ke tattare da hakan yadda ya kamata. Domin biyan masu ajiya ribar 5% ko 10%, waɗannan kamfanoni dole ne su sami ribar da ta fi haka. Sun yi hakan ne ta hanyar bayar da rance ga manyan masu cin bashi na hukumomi kamar 3AC ko kuma shiga cikin dabarun DeFi masu haɗari. Alex Mashinsky na Celsius, wanda aka sani da rigunansa masu rubutun “Bankuna ba abokanka ba ne,” ya bayyana kamfaninsa a matsayin madadin da ya fi dacewa da ɗa'a da kuma tsaro.

![](https://netts.io/blog/articles/most-drastic-miscalculations-in-crypto-history/images/1-4.png)

Kuskuren shi ne ɗaukar waɗannan rance a matsayin ayyuka masu aminci da ƙarancin haɗari.

Lokacin da kasuwanni suka takure, masu cin bashi ba su iya biya ba, kuma rashin kwararar kudi (illiquidity) na jarin ya sa ba su iya biya wa abokan ciniki kudaden da suke son cira ba. Sun bayar da bashi kamar su wani asusun jarin "hedge fund" ne, amma suna tallata kansu kamar asusun ajiya na banki. Wannan sabani na dabarun kasuwanci ba zai dore ba. Sun yi kuskuren rashin lura da hadarin alakar kasuwar crypto — idan mai cin bashi daya ya durkushe, kusan dukkan sauran ma sai su durkushe. Rashin nasarar wadannan masu ba da bashi ya nuna hadarin “rehypothecation,” inda ake amfani da jingina guda daya sau da dama a cikin tsarin, wanda hakan ke haifar da jerin basussuka da ke karyewa da zarar kudi ya daina kwarara. Wannan ya haifar da durkushewar daruruwan dubban masu bin bashi baki daya, inda suka rage da ‘yan kabbai kadan daga cikin kudadensu, sannan ya ruguza duk wani tunanin cewa “ribar (yield)” a harkar crypto za ta taba kasancewa ba tare da hadari ba.

Ko da kokari mai kyau kamar na “The DAO” a shekarar 2016 ya fada cikin kuskuren dabarun aiki: Tunanin cewa ka’idar “code is law” (lambar kwamfuta ita ce doka) za ta iya yin gaba da nufin dan adam da kuma tsaro. Wasu rukunin mutane ne suka kirkiro The DAO, inda suka samar da wani sabon nau’i na asusun jarin kasuwanci da ba shi da uwar gida (decentralized venture capital fund), wanda ke dauke da dimbin Ether. Burinsu: gina wata kungiya da ba za a iya tsayar da ita ba kuma take tafiyar da kanta. Amma sun yi kuskuren raina wahalar rubuta lambar kwamfuta (code) mara kuskure ga wani sabon tsari na farko. Kuma lokacin da wani dan kutse (hacker) ya yi amfani da kuskuren “recursive call bug” don sace kudaden, sai al’ummar crypto suka shiga cikin rudanin fahimta. Ka’idar rashin sauyawa (immutability) ta yi karo da gaskiyar lamarin sata. Sakamakon hakan — wato “hard fork” na Ethereum — ya nuna cewa yarjejeniyar al’umma (social consensus) har yanzu tana gaba da lambar kwamfuta, wata fahimta da ta raba kan al’ummar tun daga lokacin.

Masana’antar, bayan irin wadannan bala’o’i, dole ne ta girma. Taken Silicon Valley na “yi sauri ka lalata abubuwa” ya zama bala’i lokacin da aka yi amfani da shi a kan kudaden ajiyar rayuwar mutane." Mun ga yadda al'amura suka karkata zuwa ga sababbin dabarun kiyayewa waɗanda suka haɗa da raba tsarin ajiya (custody) daga ciniki da kuma gudanar da binciken asusun ajiya (auditing reserves) dalla-dalla. Waɗanda suka tsira su ne waɗanda suka rungumi tsarin sarrafa haɗari (risk management), maimakon neman riba mafi tsoka kawai. Yanayin dokoki a shekarar 2026 ya bambanta nesa ba kusa ba da yanayin rashin doka na shekarar 2020, inda cikakkun dokoki game da raba kadarori da asusun ajiya na jari yanzu suka zama wajibi maimakon zaɓi.

Amma ko a cikin wannan sabon yanayin, ingancin aiki wani fage ne na fafatawa. Samun albarkatun aiki (resource) yana ɗaya daga cikin matsalolin da kamfanoni da manyan masu amfani da hanyoyin sadarwa na blockchain (kamar a cikin hanyar sadarwa ta TRON) ke fuskanta akai-akai. Kowane ciniki (transaction) yana buƙatar albarkatun aiki, kuma hakan yana ƙaruwa sosai lokacin da kake gudanar da daruruwan ciniki. A nan ne ra'ayin sarrafa albarkatun aiki ya sauya daga zama kyakkyawar dabara kawai zuwa babban jigo na nasara.

## Sauƙi da Ingancin Aiki – Hanyar da ke Gaba

A shekarar 2026, ba ma harkar neman bunƙasa ta hanyar hasashe kawai, kuma masu saka jari sun karkata zuwa ga inganta yadda ake gudanar da ayyuka. A wannan karon, kamfanoni ba wai kawai suna neman haɓaka farashin kuɗaɗen intanet (tokens) ba ne; suna burin gudanar da kasuwanci mai dorewa tare da samun riba mai kyau. To yaya batun harkokin yau da kullum, kamar yin hayar Makamashi (Energy) don yin ciniki ba tare da kashe makudan kuɗaɗen haraji (fees) ba? Ikon sarrafa waɗannan tsadar ayyuka cikin hikima shi ne dabarar da ke raba tsakanin ayyukan da ke samun nasara da kuma waɗanda ke tafka asara.

Yin hayar makamashi wata al'ada ce da aka saba da ita ga manhajojin dapps masu inganci a cikin hanyar sadarwa ta TRON. Idan kamfanoni suka zaɓi yin hayar Makamashi maimakon biyan TRX a duk lokacin da aka tura kuɗi, hakan zai rage kuɗaɗen da ake kashewa a kowane wata sosai. Wannan wani gyara ne mai ma'ana daga kura-kuran baya — amincewa ne cewa albarkatun aiki suna da iyaka kuma dole ne a sarrafa su cikin taka-tsantsan. Waɗanda za su tsira a zagaye na gaba su ne waɗanda za su yi amfani da kowane sashe na kasuwancinsu yadda ya kamata, tun daga ma'ajiyar kuɗinsu (balance sheet) har zuwa kuɗaɗen hada-hadarsu.

![](https://netts.io/blog/articles/most-drastic-miscalculations-in-crypto-history/images/1-5.png)

A cikin wannan yanayi na yin amfani da albarkatu yadda ya kamata, ayyuka kamar Netts Energy Charge Bot sun zama abokan tafiya da ba za a iya raba su da masu sha'awar crypto na zamani ba. Irin wannan bot ɗin zai ba masu amfani damar aron albarkatu don hada-hadarsu a hanyar sadarwa ta Tron yadda ya kamata, tare da guje wa biyan kuɗi mai yawa a kan tura kuɗi maras nauyi. Masu amfani za su iya zaɓar walat, su sanya ragowar kuɗinsu a TRX sannan su danna don cajin da zai cika albarkatu ta atomatik na tsawon sa'a guda — wanda ya isa don tura USDT. Idan an kammala tura kuɗin, bot ɗin zai ɗauki adadin albarkatun da aka yi amfani da su sannan ya rage su daga cikin ajiyar kuɗin ku - idan ba ku yi amfani da kowane albarkatu ba, ba za a rage komai ba. Zai rage kuɗin tura kuɗi domin yana ba da farashi mai sauƙi ga walat ɗin da ke da USDT da waɗanda ba su da shi, daidai da inganci da kwarewar da ke nuna balagar kasuwar yau.