---
title: "Ka'idar Hargitsi da Crypto - Wasan Sa'a"
description: "Tasirin malam-buɗe-littafi na ka'idar hargitsi yana bayyana a duniyar crypto — ƙananan abubuwan da ke haddasa canji, sauye-sauye masu girma, da kuma dalilin da ya sa sarrafa kasada ya fi dacewa fiye da nuna kamar ana iya hasashen kasuwanni."
language: ha
published: 2026-04-05
author: Netts
topic: "Insights"
canonical: https://netts.io/blog/chaos-theory-and-crypto-game-of-chance?lang=ha
languages: [en, ru, es, zh, th, fr, uk, tr, hi, fa, ar, ha, pt, vi, ko, ja, id, de, tl]
translation_outdated: false
---
# Ka'idar Hargitsi da Crypto - Wasan Sa'a

Tasirin malam-buɗe-littafi na ka'idar hargitsi yana bayyana a duniyar crypto — ƙananan abubuwan da ke haddasa canji, sauye-sauye masu girma, da kuma dalilin da ya sa sarrafa kasada ya fi dacewa fiye da nuna kamar ana iya hasashen kasuwanni.

Ka'idar hargitsi (Chaos theory) tana mayar da hankali ne kan gano da kuma bayyana al'amura masu ban mamaki, marasa bin layi (non-linear) da kuma waɗanda ba a taɓa tsammani ba. Tana koya mana cewa irin waɗannan haɗaɗɗun tsarin marasa bin layi, koda kuwa waɗanda a farko suke bayyana a matsayin hargitsin bazuwar, a zahiri suna ƙunshe da wasu tsare-tsare a ƙarƙashinsu, nau'ikan alaƙa a tsakaninsu, hanyoyin sake amsawa (feedback loops) da kuma hanyar da suke tafiyar da kansu (wanda kuma shi ne yadda suke zama masu matuƙar nauyi). Misali mafi shahara ga wannan shi ne “tasirin malam buɗe ido” (butterfly effect), wanda ke nuna cewa ƙanƙanin motsin fuka-fukan malam buɗe ido a Brazil na iya haifar da guguwa a Texas bayan makonni, ta hanyar wasu jerin abubuwan da ke faruwa a sararin samaniya.

Babban hoton hargitsi (chaos) ana samunsa ne ta hanyar iyakarsa: dogaro mai saurin motsi akan yanayin farko. Yana nufin gaskiyar cewa ƙanƙanin gyara, kusan marar ganuwa a farkon wani aiki, na iya haifar da sakamako daban-daban — kuma wani lokacin marasa iko — a nan gaba. Amma hargitsi ba wai kawai rashin tsari ba ne ko bazuwar abubuwa.

Tsari ne mai zurfi kuma daki-daki wanda ba ya ba da damar yin hasashen kai tsaye ko na layi. Yi la'akari da pendulum mai ninki biyu — wato pendulum tare da wani pendulum ɗin da ke rataye a ƙarshensa. Motsinsa yana ƙarƙashin ikon ƙa'idojin asali na gravity da inertia ne, amma yana bin hanyar da za ta iya zama marar tabbas — yana lilo a cikin wani tsari mai kyau, mai ɗaukar hankali, amma a asali mai wuyar ganewa.

Wani fanni da aka fi so shi ne tsarin ƙididdigar yawan halittu (population modelling). Ko da ma'adanar taswira ta yau da kullun, wato taswirar logistic (logistic map), tana bayyana yadda yawan nau'in halittu ke bambanta da lokaci. Yawan jama'ar yana daidaita idan aka zaɓi ma'auna (parameters) da suka dace.

But idan aka taɓa wannan ma'aunin (parameter) kaɗan, yawan jama'ar na iya fara juya-juya tsakanin ƙididdiga biyu; sannan huɗu; sannan takwas — yana karkata zuwa ga abin da ake kira yanayin hargitsi (chaotic state), ba ya sake maimaita ƙididdigarsa amma koyaushe yana kasancewa a cikin wani ƙayyadadden kewayon.

Wannan yankin mai iyaka shi ne abin da masana ka'idar hargitsi ke kira da “strange attractor.” Tsarin kuma ba ya taɓa tsayawa a kan wani takamaiman matsayi ko yin zagaye mai sauƙi, amma halayensa suna maƙale a cikin wani takamaiman tsari mai filla-filla — sararin siffa na dukkan yanayin da zai iya kasancewa, wanda aka sani da “phase space” — wanda a cikinsa babu abin da ke maimaita kansa. Wannan shi ne ainihin ma'anar hargitsin: kana da dokoki tabbatattu, kuma ta wata hanya suna samar da halayen da ba a iya hasashen su ba amma suna da wani tsari.

## Daga Malam-buɗe-littafi zuwa Kumfar Bitcoin (Bitcoin Bubbles)

Wannan tabbataccen ƙa'ida na dogaro mai sarkakiya ga yanayin farko ba kawai wani batu ne na ilimi ba; rayuwar yau da kullum ce ta kasuwar cryptocurrency. Kasuwar crypto ta duniya ita ce cikakken misali na tsarin hargitsi — guguwar fasahar zamani, tunanin ɗan adam da ra'ayoyinsa, sauye-sauyen tattalin arzikin duniya, da kuma masu tsara dokoki masu saurin sauyawa. A cikin wannan yanayin, sako guda (tweet) daga wani hamshaƙin attajirin fasaha, jita-jitar da ba a tabbatar ba a dandalin Reddit, ko ma wata ɗan ƙaramar matsala a cikin lambar sirri (code) na iya zama kamar fiffiken malam-buɗe-littafi wanda ke haddasa gagarumin sauyin farashi a dukkan kasuwar.

Miliyoyi ko ma biliyoyin daloli na ƙimar kasuwa na iya kafuwa ko rugujewa a cikin sa'o'i kaɗan sakamakon abubuwan da ake gani kamar ƙanana ne, walau na alheri ko na sharri. Mun ga hakan lokacin da lamarin GameStop ya shafi crypto, da kuma hauhawa da faɗuwar kuɗaɗen meme kamar Dogecoin da Shiba Inu, waɗanda suka yi tashin gwauron zabi ba tare da komai ba sai tallace-tallacen kafofin sada zumunta da murnar jama'a — tasirin malam-buɗe-littafi na dijital (digital butterfly effect) wanda memes da tallan masu fada-a-ji suka rura wutar sa.

Dubi mummunan rugujewar tattalin arzikin Terra/Luna a shekarar 2022.

An gina tsarin ne bisa wani stablecoin na algorithm, TerraUSD (UST), wanda aka yi niyyar ya kasance yana da daidaito na 1-da-1 da dalar Amurka ta hanyar tsarin amsawa (feedback loop) tare da token dinsa na 'yar uwa, LUNA. Na wani lokaci, abin ya yi aiki. Amma wasu manyan fansar kadarori na dabara — wato ɗan girgiza kaɗan — sun haɗdasa ɗan rarrabuwar daidaito.

Wannan ya haifar da rugujewa mai juyawa (spiral): yayin da UST ya ɗan rasa darajarsa, algorithm ɗin ya samar da ƙarin LUNA ta atomatik don ƙoƙarin kiyaye daidaito — wanda hakan kuma ya rage darajar LUNA kanta. Lokacin da ya bayyana ƙarara cewa daidaiton yana ƙara fita daga hannu, mutane da yawa sun sayar da UST da LUNA cikin firgici don tura farashin ƙasa cikin sauri. Rugujewar ƙasa ta kasance wani misali na tsarin rudani da ya wuce gona da iri, inda waɗancan matakai da aka samar don tabbatar da daidaito suka koma injinan bala'i.

![Ka'idar Hargitsi da Crypto - Wasan Sa'a](https://netts.io/blog/images/body/f3b168749b02c243833c5ea2f82ce265035af579-1234.webp)

Haka zalika, rugujewar bala'i ta dandalin musayar kuɗi (exchange) na Mt. Gox a shekarar 2014 ba abu ne guda ɗaya ba; tarin ƙananan gazawa ne masu ƙaruwa — tun daga keta tsaro da ba a gano ba zuwa kurakuran manhaja — waɗanda suka rage ingancin tsarin a hankali har sai da ya ruguje cikin rudani da hargitsi wanda ya girgiza al'ummar Bitcoin da ke tasowa. Haƙiƙa, koda haɓakar ICO na 2017 ana iya kallonsa ta wannan fuskar. Wasu ayyuka ƙalilan masu nasara sun haifar da tsarin tallatawa da "tsoron rasa dama" (FOMO), wanda ya haifar da kumfar hasashe inda masu zuba jari suka zuba biliyoyin daloli a cikin ayyukan bogi (ayyukan da ba su da komai sai takardar bayani wato whitepaper).

Tsarin ya fita daga iko, kuma lokacin da shahararrun ayyuka da dama suka kasa tabbata, ra'ayin mutane ya koma tsarin amsawa mara kyau wanda ya haɗdasa rugujewar masana'antar baki ɗaya. Abin da wannan lamari ke nunawa shi ne cewa a harkar crypto, kamar yadda yake a ƙa'idar rudani (chaos theory), tunanin kai-tsaye (linear thinking) ba ya aiki.

Kasuwa ba inji ba ne da za a iya hasashen yadda zai kasance, a’a, wani abu ne mai rai da ke ci gaba da sauyawa, kuma a kowane lokaci yana gab da fadawa cikin rudani.

## Masu Gina Sabon Kimiyya

Binciken ilimi game da wadannan hadaddun tsarin ya fara ne, abin mamaki, daga fannin nazarin yanayi (meteorology). Masana lissafi sun dade suna amfani da samfura (models) don kokarin fahimtar yanayi tun kusan shekarun 1930, in ji Michael E. Mann, masanin yanayi a Jami'ar Penn State. “Abin da Lorenz ya gano shi ne cewa irin wannan tsarin ba za a iya yin hasashensa ba,” in ji Marshall. Mutane sun dade suna kokarin hasashen yanayi, amma a shekarun 1960 wani gagarumin sauyi ya faru: yin hasashe ta hanyar amfani da kwamfutoci. A cikin wani mataki da zai sauya alkiblar kimiyyar zamani, ya yanke shawarar sake gudanar da daya daga cikin irin wadannan gwaje-gwajen na kwamfuta (simulation). Domin ya tashi lokaci, ya sake shigar da bayanan farko Masanin lissafi Benoît Mandelbrot, a halin da ake ciki, yayin da yake binciken sauye-sauyen farashi a kasuwannin auduga da hayaniya a layukan sadarwa, ya ci karo da ra'ayin fractals — hadaddun sifofi masu kama da juna da ke maimaita kansu a kowane mataki na girma.

Ya nuna cewa wannan tsarin lissafi na fractal yana bayyana a cikin abubuwa da yawa na halitta da ake ganin ba su da tsari, tun daga gaɓar tekun Biritaniya mai rabe-rabe har zuwa bishiyoyi masu rassa. Ya tabbatar da cewa jadawalin kuɗi ma ba su fita daga wannan tsarin ba. Jadawalin farashin hannun jari a cikin yini guda yakan yi kama da jadawalin wannan hannun jarin a cikin wata guda ko shekara guda. Wannan tsarin fractal shi ne jigon halayyar rudani (chaotic behavior).

Idan aka tattara, aikin majagaba kamar Lorenz da Mandelbrot ya taimaka wajen ba mu sabon yaren lissafi don bayyana hadadden kyawun da ke tafiyar da sararin samaniyarmu, tun daga samuwar taurari (galaxy) har zuwa bugun zuciyarka — kuma yanzu, har zuwa sauye-sauye masu tsanani na agogon dijital.

## Sarrafa Rudani: Dubara don Samun Nasara

Don haka, idan crypto kasuwa ce mai cike da rudani kuma ba za a iya hasashenta ba, shin hakan yana nufin nasara ta dogara ne kawai ga sa'a? Ba lallai ba ne. Mataki na farko na shawo kan wannan cikas shi ne gane cewa kasuwar tana da rudani a dabi'ance. Maimakon ƙoƙarin hango abin da ba za a iya hangowa ba, dabarar da ta dogara da sanin rudani tana mayar da hankali ne kan sarrafa kasada da kuma kasancewa mai saurin daidaitawa.

Wannan yana nufin gane cewa abubuwan da ba a zato (black swan events) da rugujewar kasuwa ba abubuwan ban mamaki ba ne, a'a, wani ɓangare ne na tsarin. Wannan yana kaiwa ga dabarun aiki kamar rarraba jari (diversification) sosai a tsakanin nau'ikan kadarorin crypto daban-daban (ba wai kawai tsabar kuɗi daban-daban ba, har ma da sassa daban-daban — kamar DeFi, Layer 1s, da NFTs) domin ka sami kariya idan kowane fanni ya ruguje.

Haka kuma yana bayyana babban hadarin yin amfani da babban leverage: a cikin tsarin da ke cike da hargitsi, wani ɗan ƙaramin sauyi da ba a yi tsammani ba zai iya ninkuwa ta hanyar leverage ya zama mummunar asara da za ta iya ƙarar da dukkan jarin mutum.

Manufar ita ce a yi ciniki cikin ƙanƙan da kai, tare da sanin cewa babu wani tsari da zai iya fahimtar dukkan sarƙaƙiyar kasuwa gaba ɗaya. Wannan zai ƙarfafa mayar da hankali kan ginshikai da darajar dogon lokaci maimakon cacancan gajeren lokaci, da kuma gina jarin da zai iya jurewa — ko ma ya ci moriyar — wasu daga cikin hargitsin da ke tattare da kasuwar.

Waɗannan ra'ayoyin suna da muhimmanci wajen gina ingantattun tsare-tsare a fannin crypto. Misali, za mu iya duba dandalin TRON, wanda ke aiki kuma cike da harkoki: sa'o'i 24 a kowace rana; haɗa-hadar kuɗi na gudana cikin sauri ba kakkautawa; aiwatar da smart contracts na ta taruwa a kowane lokaci.

![Ka'idar Hargitsi da Crypto - Wasan Sa'a](https://netts.io/blog/images/body/f11f8e130c355a8992f2921b8ceec684f3f7f703-1364.webp)

Daga abin da kake gani, ingantaccen tsari kamar sarrafa hayar Energy ta atomatik ba abin da ake ɗauka a matsayin abin jin daɗi ba ne kawai; a maimakon haka, buƙata ce ga sana'o'i don su gudana ba tare da cikas ba kuma su taimaka wajen rage kashe kuɗi — ta hanyar ingantattun hanyoyin samar da ayyuka. Wani babban dandali na iya amfani da algoridim na haɗaɗɗen tsari don hasashen buƙatar makamashi daga zirga-zirgar dandalin, yawan haɗa-hadar kuɗi, har ma da ra'ayoyin kafofin sada zumunta. Bayan haka, zai iya yin hayar Energy ta atomatik a lokuta da farashi mafi dacewa, yana sarrafa kuɗin yadda ya kamata ga dubban abokan ciniki.

Wannan misali ne bayyananne na yadda za a shawo kan wani ɓangare na hargitsin crypto — ba ta hanyar hasashen darajar wani altcoin ba, ko ta hanyar wasa da farashin token ɗinsa ba — sai dai ta hanyar sarrafa albarkatun cikin gida na tsarin cikin basira.

Kamar yadda aka yi amfani da ka'idar hargitsi (chaos theory) a wasu fannoni masu sarkakiya da muhimmanci sosai tare da samun babban nasara, haka ita ma tana samar da tsari mai amfani kwarai don nazarin sarkakiya da muhimman tsarin rayuwa na hanyoyin sadarwa na blockchain na zamani.

## Sabuwar Gaba: AI, LLMs da Hargitsin Crypto

Kuma fage mafi kyawun hargitsi na lokaci-lokaci don gwada ka'idar hargitsi shi ne kasuwar cryptocurrency. Gaba daya na dijital ne, yana samar da adadi mai ban mamaki (kuma mafi yawancinsa ba a iya misaltuwa) na bayanan daki-daki a kowane sakan na kowace rana. Ana gudanar da shi ne ta hanyar cakuda abubuwan da ake kira dokoki tabbatattu — tare da ka'idojin da aka sanya a cikin shirye-shiryen manhaja ta open-source — da kuma ayyuka marasa tabbas na miliyoyin mutane wadanda ba su da wata alaka ta yau da kullum da juna amma kuma suke kara kasancewa a hade a fadin duniya.

![Ka'idar Hargitsi da Crypto - Wasan Sa'a](https://netts.io/blog/images/body/98e7a0c45f666108e7b40ffb75e3b78b2283fd5b-1310.webp)

Bullar fasahar zamani mai karfi kwanan nan, musamman a fannin koyon na'ura mai zurfi (deep learning - DL) da Manyan Samfuran Harshe (Large Language Models - LLMs), ya bude damammaki marasa misaltuwa don bincike da gano wannan fage mai ban sha'awa. Ana iya horar da LLMs don karanta dimbin bayanan da ba su da tsari, manya (dangane da makamashi) nan take — tun daga ra'ayoyi daki-daki a cikin miliyoyin sakonnin kafofin sada zumunta da labaran gaggawa, zuwa cikakkun bayanai na fasaha a dandalin masu haɓaka manhaja, har zuwa danyen bayanan da ba sa canzawa na mu'amala a cikin sarka (on-chain transactions). Misali, AI na iya hada karuwar ayyukan GitHub na wani aiki tare da tattara kudi na "whale" a cikin sarka (on-chain) da kuma canjin ra'ayin kafofin sada zumunta daga tsaka-tsaki zuwa mai kyau, ta yadda za ta gano sabon yanayin da ke tasowa tun kafin ya bayyana a jadawalin farashi.

Wadannan samfuran AI suna iya gano tsari mai sarkakiya da ba ya tafiya kai-tsaye da kuma alaka wadanda suke a boye kwarai koda ga kwararrun manazarta mutane." Waɗannan tsare-tsaren ana iya amfani da su don gina samfura masu sarƙaƙiya da kuzari na hargitsin kasuwa waɗanda suka zarce nazarin fasaha (technical analysis) kuma suke la'akari da abubuwa da dama da ke ba wa kadarori kima. Kuma ko da yake hasashen gaskiya na dindindin ba zai taɓa zama cikakke ba kamar yadda ita kanta ka'idar ta nuna, irin wannan fahimtar tsarin da aka inganta da fasahar AI tabbas zai inganta fahimtarmu sosai game da abubuwan da ke tafiyar da kasuwa, kuma zai haifar da kyakkyawan sarrafa haɗari da ƙarin kwarin gwiwa game da damammaki na ɗan lokaci.

Wannan haɗuwar ka'idar hargitsi (chaos theory) da AI tana buɗe wata hanya mafi inganci, wadda ke dogara da bayanai, da kuma tsauraran matakan kimiyya don kewaya sabuwar duniyar kasuwannin kuɗaɗen intanet (crypto-financial markets) mai ban sha'awa.

A ƙarshe, sarrafa sarƙaƙiyar tsarin blockchain mai ci gaba aiki ne da ke buƙatar kayan aiki na musamman. Yin aiki a cikin hanyar sadarwa ta TRON kanta, da kuma fafatawa da hargitsin da ke tattare da makamashin hada-hada (transaction Energy) na iya zama babban aiki. A nan ne dandalin kamar Netts Workspace zai iya taimakawa tare da ingantaccen tsarin sa na sarrafa makamashin TRON (TRON Energy).

![Ka'idar Hargitsi da Crypto - Wasan Sa'a](https://netts.io/blog/images/body/5eed6c067fc10c9fd1dfeb65850874ff975023c6-1440.webp)

Yana kawo tsarin sarrafa kansa don raba makamashi (Energy sharing), tsara lokaci mai kyau, da kuma rage tsadar kuɗi nan take — a zahiri, wani ɗan wurin natsuwa ne na tsari da inganci da aka samar a tsakiyar hargitsin blockchain mai saurin gaske. Ta hanyar mayar da sarrafa albarkatu masu fuskoki daban-daban ya zama mai sauƙi kuma na atomatik, yana ba ka damar mayar da hankali kan aikinka maimakon ka shagala da igiyar ruwan hanyar sadarwa.